The attack on Kyiv by the Moscow troops has caused international diplomatic instability recently. What does it that the Russian President Vladimir Putin aspires to accomplish by this threat that can soon engulf the nations around the globe? Why even war and why alert the nuclear forces in the eve of sanctions by the west? Let's understand this hot international pick of the month and comprehend the ideology that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is up against.
What is this conflict?
Both Russia and the West see Ukraine as a potential buffer against each other. Russia considers Ukraine within its natural sphere of influence. Most of it was for centuries part of the Russian Empire, many Ukrainians are native Russian speakers and the country was part of the Soviet Union until winning independence in 1991.
The Uprising Of 2014
The following month, the separatist regions held a popular vote to declare independence and make a bid to become part of Russia. Moscow hasn't accepted the motion, just used the regions as a tool to keep Ukraine in its orbit and prevent it from joining NATO. Ukraine and the West accused Russia of backing the rebels with troops and weapons. Moscow denied that, saying any Russians who fought there were volunteers.
What Is The Ukrainian Side Of The Story?
Though anxiety courses through the country, life continues more or less as normal in most of it. Both civilians and government leaders say that they remain calm amid foreign reports of an imminent invasion, and some even say they doubt that Russia will actually invade. But at the same time, many civilians have increasingly joined volunteer defence units and signed up for first-aid courses.
How Has The World Responded To The Invasion?
As the world comes to terms with Russia launching a military attack on Ukraine, attention turns to how the international community will respond and how far it will go in punishing Vladimir Putin.
In Africa, the response was muted with only a handful of governments on the continent speaking out in the aftermath of the attacks.
Indian Take On The Invasion
India is facing a dilemma in its position over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, former diplomats and experts said on Sunday, as New Delhi tries to balance its close ties with both the West and Russia. Air, sea, and ground attacks have since intensified, forcing almost 200,000 Ukrainians to flee to neighbouring Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova. After a US-sponsored resolution demanding that Russia cease its attacks was tabled in the UN Security Council, India, a strategic partner of both Moscow and Washington, abstained from voting. The Indian government called for “a return to dialogue” and offered to “contribute in any way towards peace efforts.”
Nandan Unnikrishnan of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation told Arab News: “What India is trying to do is to balance between two partners who are essential to its own calculations.” New Delhi’s ties with Moscow span more than seven decades, with half of India’s military hardware being sourced from Russia. On the other hand, its partnership with the US has been growing for the last 20 years, with both countries being members of the QUAD, a four-state strategic security dialogue that also includes Japan and Australia, which was established in the face of increased Chinese economic and military power.
“Everyone understands that India is doing a very difficult task of dancing on a rope,” Unnikrishnan said, adding that while Russia praised India’s neutrality after its abstention on the Security Council vote, the US administration of President Joe Biden expressed its understanding. “The Biden administration’s statement after the vote said that they understand that the relationship with Russia is distinct,” he said. “India needs to very carefully calibrate the impact it would have if it takes one stand or other.”
Anil Trigunayat, New Delhi’s former ambassador to Moscow, said that given India’s strategic partnerships with the US and Russia, it has to “calibrate its own national interests and does not wish to be bogged between a superpower rivalry.” Arvind Gupta, director of the think tank Vivekananda International Foundation, who served at the Indian embassy in Moscow, said that taking a stand is “difficult” not only for India, but also other countries. “I feel India has taken a balanced view — not going into outright condemnation but expressing concerns and talking about the legitimate interests of all concerned,” he said. “That places India in a position where it can play some role in bringing down the tensions.”
Policy and defence expert Manoj Joshi of the Observer Research Foundation said India has been avoiding taking a stand, but continuing a policy of neutrality may become a challenge in the long run. “One UN member has attacked another UN member, so aggression has taken place. India called for the cessation of hostilities. If India can sit on the fence they should sit on the fence if they think they can do it. But it’s going to be increasingly difficult,” he said. “When a conflict situation has arisen, it’s very difficult to stay neutral. There is pressure from both sides to support them. It’s one thing to be neutral when there is no shooting going on. When the shooting is going on you have to make a choice.”
India walks on a tightrope as leaders of both Russia and Ukraine, as well as the US and Europe, has seemed its support to their favours at the UN Security Council.
My Opinion On The Conflict
- India acknowledges close relations with Russia and both are time-tested friends. Almos half our defence imports are through Russian involvement. And Russia has even supported us at the UN multiple times.
- India was “non-aligned” during the cold war, the country grew close to the Soviets as the US drifted towards its nemesis Pakistan. Crucially, the Soviet Union is credited as having helped India win its 1971 war with Pakistan over Bangladesh.
- Some 65 per cent of arms transferred to India between 1950 and 2020 were from the Soviet Union or Russia, an estimated $83.4bn of a total $126.7bn, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
- As Putin arrived in India in December, so did deliveries of S-400 Russian-built missile defence systems, part of a $5.4bn deal signed two years earlier in defiance of Washington. Observers say Moscow needs its allies, like India and China, to help alleviate the crushing pressure of western financial sanctions.
- In all, Russia has used the veto power four times in support of India. Moscow through the decades has not diluted its position as its strategic partner in South Asia. In 1957, 1962 and 1971, Russia was the only country that vetoed resolutions seeking UN interventions in Kashmir.
But if we look at the Ukrainian past with India, it differs a lot. Ukraine, on the other hand, supported Pakistan with military and economic trades and voted against India on the Kashmir issue at the UNSC. So, the reason for India's crucial role is clear. Russia is an old ally that we can't afford to lose due to New Delhi's security issues, and Ukraine (the US and Europe) had a great partnership only in the last decade with us. However, does that mean India is pushing its national interests before the peace principles? That is a topic to debate on and is up for some other time.